[下载]科学美国人(翻译):有些邮政编码倾向于失败者 2020.01.15

cathy0301 2020-01-18 342 阅读
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Remember Crystal Pepsi?

还记得水晶百事吗?

[CLIP: Crystal Pepsi ad]

It debuted in the early ’90s, with a soundtrack of Van Halen. But if you’re blanking, don’t feel bad. Because Crystal Pepsi disappeared—just a few years after it debuted.

伴随着范海伦(Van Halen)的配乐,水晶百事在90年代初首次亮相。但是如果你感到茫然,不要难过。因为水晶百事在推出几年后就销声匿迹了。

But presumably the soft drink had some fans. Previous research found that people who buy products destined to fail—like Crystal Pepsi—also buy other duds.

但据推测,这种软饮料有一些粉丝。之前的研究发现,那些购买失败的产品(如水晶百事)的人,也会购买其他没用的东西。

“They’re buying things other people are not buying. And they’re buying them repeatedly.”

“他们在买别人不买的东西,而且反复购买。”

Duncan Simester is an economist at M.I.T. He and his colleagues call these people “harbingers of failure”—because they tend to buy products that flop. Now they find that those harbingers tend to cluster in the same zip codes.

邓肯•西米斯特是麻省理工学院的经济学家,他和同事们称这些人为“失败的先兆”——因为他们倾向于购买失败的产品。现在他们发现这些先兆往往聚集在相同的邮政编码。

They made the discovery by tracking the purchasing habits of customers at a mass merchandise chain—think Walmart or Target. And they found that certain customers kept buying products most other people didn’t want. In a follow-up experiment, they found that those people also tended to purchase more unpopular, niche items at a clothing retailer. But it goes further.

研究是通过跟踪大型商品连锁店(如沃尔玛或塔吉特)顾客的购买习惯而发现这一现象的。他们发现,某些顾客不断地购买其他大多数人不想要的产品。在随后的实验中,他们发现这些人也倾向于在服装零售商那里购买一些不受欢迎的小众商品。同时,影响深远。

These same people bought homes that appreciated less than other homes. And what’s more, they were more likely to support political candidates who lost. All of which indicates that these people—who, based on zip codes, also tend to live near each other—consistently pick losers.

这些人买的房子比其他房子增值少。更重要的是,他们更有可能支持那些失败的政治候选人。所有这些都表明,这些人——基于邮政编码,他们也往往住得很近——总是选择失败者。

The results are in the Journal of Marketing Research.

该研究结果发表在《市场研究》杂志上。

Unfortunately, the researchers won't reveal which zip codes are the ones in question. But the neighborhoods tend to be suburban, with lower household income, less educated residents and more single parents. People there also use a lot of coupons, and more of them are white than are the residents of other zip codes.

不幸的是,研究人员不会透露哪些邮政编码是有问题的。但这些社区往往是郊区,家庭收入较低,居民受教育程度较低,单身父母较多。那里的人们也用很多优惠券,而且他们中白人比其他地区的居民还多。

As to why these zip codes pick losing candidates or products? It’s possible they’re just not as engaged as other consumers.

为什么这些邮政编码会选择失败的候选人或产品?他们可能不像其他消费者那样消费。

“One of the things we looked at is: Are these people less likely to write product reviews? The answer is yes. If they write reviews, do they tend to be shorter reviews? And the answer is yes.”

“我们关注的一件事是:这些人不太可能写产品评论吗?”答案是肯定的。如果他们写评论,他们会倾向于写更短的评论吗?答案也是肯定的。”

Of course, retailers could learn from this when test-marketing new products. Rather than looking at how many units sell, it might be more useful to see if the people buying the product consistently see their picks go belly-up.

当然,零售商在试用新产品时可以从中吸取教训。与其关注卖出了多少,不如看看购买产品的人是否总是看到自己买的产品一蹶不振。
Remember Crystal Pepsi? 还记得水晶百事吗? [CLIP: Crystal Pepsi ad] It debuted in the early ’90s, with a soundtrack of Van Halen. But if you’re blanking, don’t feel bad. Because Crystal Pepsi disappeared—just a few years after it debuted. 伴随着范海伦(Van Halen)的配乐,水晶百事在90年代初首次亮相。但是如果你感到茫然,不要难过。因为水晶百事在推出几年后就销声匿迹了。 But presumably the soft drink had some fans. Previous research found that people who buy products destined to fail—like Crystal Pepsi—also buy other duds. 但据推测,这种软饮料有一些粉丝。之前的研究发现,那些购买失败的产品(如水晶百事)的人,也会购买其他没用的东西。 “They’re buying things other people are not buying. And they’re buying them repeatedly.” “他们在买别人不买的东西,而且反复购买。” Duncan Simester is an economist at M.I.T. He and his colleagues call these people “harbingers of failure”—because they tend to buy products that flop. Now they find that those harbingers tend to cluster in the same zip codes. 邓肯•西米斯特是麻省理工学院的经济学家,他和同事们称这些人为“失败的先兆”——因为他们倾向于购买失败的产品。现在他们发现这些先兆往往聚集在相同的邮政编码。 They made the discovery by tracking the purchasing habits of customers at a mass merchandise chain—think Walmart or Target. And they found that certain customers kept buying products most other people didn’t want. In a follow-up experiment, they found that those people also tended to purchase more unpopular, niche items at a clothing retailer. But it goes further. 研究是通过跟踪大型商品连锁店(如沃尔玛或塔吉特)顾客的购买习惯而发现这一现象的。他们发现,某些顾客不断地购买其他大多数人不想要的产品。在随后的实验中,他们发现这些人也倾向于在服装零售商那里购买一些不受欢迎的小众商品。同时,影响深远。 These same people bought homes that appreciated less than other homes. And what’s more, they were more likely to support political candidates who lost. All of which indicates that these people—who, based on zip codes, also tend to live near each other—consistently pick losers. 这些人买的房子比其他房子增值少。更重要的是,他们更有可能支持那些失败的政治候选人。所有这些都表明,这些人——基于邮政编码,他们也往往住得很近——总是选择失败者。 The results are in the Journal of Marketing Research. 该研究结果发表在《市场研究》杂志上。 Unfortunately, the researchers won't reveal which zip codes are the ones in question. But the neighborhoods tend to be suburban, with lower household income, less educated residents and more single parents. People there also use a lot of coupons, and more of them are white than are the residents of other zip codes. 不幸的是,研究人员不会透露哪些邮政编码是有问题的。但这些社区往往是郊区,家庭收入较低,居民受教育程度较低,单身父母较多。那里的人们也用很多优惠券,而且他们中白人比其他地区的居民还多。 As to why these zip codes pick losing candidates or products? It’s possible they’re just not as engaged as other consumers. 为什么这些邮政编码会选择失败的候选人或产品?他们可能不像其他消费者那样消费。 “One of the things we looked at is: Are these people less likely to write product reviews? The answer is yes. If they write reviews, do they tend to be shorter reviews? And the answer is yes.” “我们关注的一件事是:这些人不太可能写产品评论吗?”答案是肯定的。如果他们写评论,他们会倾向于写更短的评论吗?答案也是肯定的。” Of course, retailers could learn from this when test-marketing new products. Rather than looking at how many units sell, it might be more useful to see if the people buying the product consistently see their picks go belly-up. 当然,零售商在试用新产品时可以从中吸取教训。与其关注卖出了多少,不如看看购买产品的人是否总是看到自己买的产品一蹶不振。
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